Test a shift change in Surat textile finishing
Before the decision
Yield improved after the night shift changed, but the order mix shifted to easier fabric. A supervisor introduced staggered shifts to cut queues between finishing and inspection. The plant now needs to judge the change on comparable material rather than a run of easy orders.
The problem
Should the team choose Staggered shifts or Current shifts for the next 12 months?
Decision owner: The business unit lead.
The manager needs to isolate the effect of timing from fabric complexity.
Option economics
Scroll the table to see all figures.
| Option | Volume (completed batches) | ₹ per unit | Fixed cost | Net contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggered shifts | 33,000 | 227 | ₹57 lakh | ₹17.91 lakh |
| Current shifts | 31,800 | 211 | ₹49.8 lakh | ₹17.3 lakh |
Make the call
- Calculate net contribution for Staggered shifts and Current shifts. Which assumption makes the comparison most fragile?
- If the leading option delivers 10% fewer completed batches, does your recommendation change?
- What evidence would you ask for before the team makes an irreversible commitment?
Reveal the worked solution
Start by validating Staggered shifts. It contributes ₹17.91 lakh after fixed costs and leads by ₹0.61 lakh. Treat that gap as the amount of unmodelled cost or lost contribution the option can absorb before the ranking reverses.
- Frame the decision
Specify the eligible population and the outcome before collecting data. Treat the figures as planning estimates. Use comparable groups to measure the effect before rollout.
- Calculate both options
Staggered shifts: 33,000 completed batches × ₹227 less ₹57 lakh in fixed costs gives ₹17.91 lakh. Current shifts: 31,800 completed batches × ₹211 less ₹49.8 lakh in fixed costs gives ₹17.3 lakh.
- Stress-test the forecast
Staggered shifts leads by ₹0.61 lakh in the base case. If Staggered shifts delivers 10% fewer completed batches (29,700) at the same margin and fixed cost, it contributes ₹10.42 lakh. Holding the other option constant, the stressed result falls behind. This isolates volume risk. Check whether both options would respond to the same change in demand.
- Set a decision threshold
Holding the other option’s result fixed, Staggered shifts needs at least 32,731 completed batches to match or beat it under the model. Alternate shift patterns across comparable lines and record quality by fabric.
The manager needs to isolate the effect of timing from fabric complexity. Compare the cost of a limited test with the loss the business would face if the full commitment failed. Ask the team to agree the decision criterion before collecting more evidence.
What if the whole market moves?
The worked solution tests a change to one option at a time. Here, both options gain or lose the same percentage of volume. Unit contribution and fixed costs stay constant.
| Volume scenario | Staggered shifts | Current shifts | Higher contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both lose 10% of volume | ₹10.42 lakh | ₹10.59 lakh | Current shifts |
| Base assumptions | ₹17.91 lakh | ₹17.3 lakh | Staggered shifts |
| Both gain 10% of volume | ₹25.4 lakh | ₹24.01 lakh | Staggered shifts |
Explain which option you would take forward. Check whether capacity, price or customer mix would also change as the market moves.