Do shorter itineraries reduce cancellations?
Study design
Assign routes within comparable departure time blocks. Log temperature and severe-weather cancellations separately from ordinary customer cancellations.
Instrument and data fields
Record route assignment, departure slot, weather classification, attendance and completion. Ask departing guests what made them stop.
Simulated evidence
In moderate weather, cancellations were 8 of 100 on the short route and 12 of 100 on the long route. In hot weather, they were 15 of 100 versus 28 of 100.
Check before drawing a conclusion
Write down the comparison you would make and the unit each row represents. Identify one explanation the study design cannot rule out, then describe how it would affect the decision.
Reveal the worked analysis
The observed difference is 4 points in moderate weather and 13 in hot weather. Use the short route in hot slots while testing whether repeat referrals change.
The hot-weather estimates may be noisy. Guide experience and breaks should be balanced across routes.