Use scenarios to change a commitment
A scenario combines assumptions that could move together. Sensitivity analysis changes one input at a time to see which assumptions matter most. Use both to choose a commitment you can revisit.
Worked example
A cold store tests high occupancy with more frequent loading and higher power cost. The combined case may have lower margin than moderate occupancy with stable temperatures. Vary door-open time separately to identify the biggest cost driver.
Change the assumption
Which is a sensitivity test: raising electricity price alone, or raising price and loading frequency together during a peak month?
Check the reasoning
Varying electricity price alone is sensitivity analysis. Moving several drivers together creates a scenario. Use the first to rank individual drivers and the second to test a plausible operating state.
Check your reasoning
What should a scenario trigger look like?
Reveal the explanation
Name the metric, threshold, owner and response. For example, if electricity per occupied tonne exceeds the pilot ceiling for two weeks, investigate loading patterns before adding customers.
Try the same framework in a different case
Explore worked stories in the reading room · Practise the next analysis